Filipe Relvas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Filipe Relvas's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-6.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.6M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1878 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1512
- Opponent strength
- 1231
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €6.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 53 pts; changed club; team strength up (+99 Elo); league level down (-43 Elo); relative output up 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -58% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | CB | 22 | 1878 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1231 | 1512 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 11 | 843 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1302 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 32 | 2800 | 92% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 1386 | 1193 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 33 | 2870 | 94% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1408 | 1224 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | LB | 24 | 1608 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1367 | 1288 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 6 | 570 | 2 | 0 | 1450 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeriy Bondar Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Alistair Johnston Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Wesley Hoedt Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Dmitriy Chistyakov Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Paulinho Superliga · 2021 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Michalis Bakakis Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Isimat-Mirin Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Riechedly Bazoer Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Vit. Guimarães | AEK Athens | €3.3M | €3.0M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Portimonense | Vit. Guimarães | €1.1M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Portimonense 23 | Portimonense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Pedras Rubras | Portimonense 23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Gondomar | Pedras Rubras | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SC Espinho U19 | Gondomar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | SC Espinho S17 | SC Espinho U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Feirense Sub-17 | SC Espinho S17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | SC Espinho S15 | Feirense Sub-17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Feirense Sub-15 | SC Espinho S15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.