Valeriy Bondar

27 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
FC Shakhtar Donetsk · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2027
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€5.3M – €9.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.6M – €6.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.2M – €9.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€7.9M – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.3M – €9.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.6M – €6.5M
Projected value (24 months)€3.2M – €9.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Valeriy Bondar's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-6.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-9.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-9.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.

Bargain Index: 23

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average64.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €6.4M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2158 (80% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
65 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1420
Opponent strength
1155
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.2M – €9.9M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 586% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -42% to -14%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB27215880%310.170.07115514200.25
2024/25FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB27238388%000.000.01117714140.28
2023/24FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB20178466%000.000.01126114970.34
2022/23FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB26226884%110.080.04127815460.38
2021/22FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB741726%000.000.03130615680.45
2020/21FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB1188338%000.000.02127015510.49
2019/20FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCB1063932%100.140.06127816190.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk6570001337
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk2210101315
2025/26Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk211500—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk8720001633
2024/25Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk445000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4360001663
2023/24Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk327000—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk190001547
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6540001697
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk3300001570
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk190001471
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6540001704
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk190001684

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mykola Matvienko
Premier Liga · 2024
28€18.0M€12.0Mfell
Oleg Reabciuk
Super League 1 · 2023
25€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Greg Taylor
Scottish Premiership · 2024
27€7.5M€4.0Mfell
Valentin Rosier
Super Lig · 2022
26€6.0M€4.0Mfell
Vitor Hugo
Super Lig · 2021
30€5.5M€4.5Mflat
Robin Yalçın
Super Lig · 2021
27€2.0M€800kfell
Liam Scales
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€2.5M€5.0Mrose
Oleksandr Svatok
Premier Liga · 2024
30€2.0M€1.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2019Shakhtar IIShakhtar D.Unknown€700k
1 Jul 2017Shakhtar U19Shakhtar IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.