Show

27 yrs · Defensive midfielder · Angola
Kocaelispor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€399k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€375k – €750k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€637k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€900k – €351k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€399k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€375k – €750k
Projected value (24 months)€637k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Show's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.42x the positional average in the league (2321 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 84

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average11.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €531k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2321 (76% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
11 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1188
Opponent strength
1268
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€637k – €1.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -40% to -7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KocaelisporSuper LigDM30232176%000.000.05126811880.40
2020/21Boavista FCLiga PortugalDM31147748%010.060.11136613080.61
2019/20B SADLiga PortugalDM24186461%010.050.10138012430.59

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Artem Makarchuk
Premier Liga · 2024
29€2.3M€700kfell
Perry Kitchen
Superliga · 2018
26€750k€475kfell
Zisis Karachalios
Super League 1 · 2022
26€600k€500kflat
Fatjon Andoni
Super League 1 · 2017
26€450k€500kflat
Dmitriy Baga
Super League 1 · 2017
27€600k€700kflat
Danny Bejarano
Super League 1 · 2021
27€400k€350kflat
Ilya Zhigulev
Premier Liga · 2021
25€1.0M€500kfell
Oleksandr Demchenko
Premier Liga · 2024
28€600k€500kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026KocaelisporMaccabi HaifaFree / loan€1.5M
3 Jul 2025Maccabi HaifaKocaelisporFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2025DallasMaccabi HaifaFree / loan€600k
22 Jul 2024Maccabi HaifaDallasFree / loan€750k
14 Aug 2023LudogoretsMaccabi Haifa€1.2M€1.3M
28 Aug 2021LOSC Lille BLudogoretsUnknown€1.5M
30 Jun 2021BoavistaLOSC Lille BFree / loan€1.5M
12 Aug 2020LOSC Lille BBoavistaFree / loan€1.3M
31 Jul 2020B SADLOSC Lille BFree / loan€1.3M
13 Aug 2019LOSC Lille BB SADFree / loan€400k
16 Jul 20191º de AgostoLOSC Lille B€2.0M€400k
1 Jan 20171º Agosto U201º de AgostoUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.