Pablo Martínez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-4.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.56x the positional average in the league (1864 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1864 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -54% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1864 | 55% | 1 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 1485 | 1420 | 0.95 |
| 2019/20 | Levante UD | Laliga | CM | 5 | 29 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1631 | 1520 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 2 | 131 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Medjani Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Marco Estrada Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Nikola Drincic Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gonzalo Melero Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Charlie Adam Premier League · 2013 | 28 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Martín Payero Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Tonny Vilhena Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Gerard Gumbau Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | SD Huesca | Levante | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 14 Jan 2022 | Levante | SD Huesca | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | CD Mirandés | Levante | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Levante | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €250k |
| 17 Jul 2020 | Atl. Levante | Levante | Unknown | €250k |
| 5 Jul 2019 | AD Alcorcón | Atl. Levante | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | UD Sanse | AD Alcorcón | Free / loan | €250k |
| 16 Aug 2018 | AD Alcorcón | UD Sanse | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AD Alcorcón B | AD Alcorcón | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Alcorcón U19 | AD Alcorcón B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | ED Moratalaz | Alcorcón U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.