Tomás Araújo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tomás Araújo's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-24.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.7M-38.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.0M-44.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €28.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1684 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1634
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.0M – €44.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +49% (IQR -14% to +78%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1684 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 1684 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 1330 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 2320 | 76% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1333 | 1632 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 13 | 476 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 1316 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 22 | 1872 | 61% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1366 | 1341 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 9 | 656 | 0 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 11 | 928 | 0 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Gil Vicente FC | 2 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Bassey Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Lisandro Martínez Eredivisie · 2021 | 23 | €23.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Eliaquim Mangala Liga Portugal · 2014 | 23 | €23.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Alexander Bah Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Zeki Çelik Ligue 1 · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Rúben Dias Liga Portugal · 2018 | 21 | €22.0M | €30.5M | rose |
| Ricardo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Gil Vicente | Benfica | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 27 Jul 2022 | Benfica | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Palmeiras U15 | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.