Leonardo Balerdi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leonardo Balerdi's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-16.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.5M-21.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-15.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.1M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1998 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €15.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 179% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -42% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 26 | 1998 | 65% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1484 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2276 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1444 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2275 | 74% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1461 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 35 | 2642 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1449 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 949 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1408 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1634 | 48% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1397 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | DM | 7 | 128 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1533 | 1700 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 12 | 1030 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 490 | 1 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €13.5M | €7.5M | fell |
| Mathieu Debuchy Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Berat Djimsiti Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Stefan Posch Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Alexander Djiku Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Jeison Murillo Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Stefan Radu Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Cristian Ansaldi Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2021 | Dortmund | Marseille | €11.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Marseille | Dortmund | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 21 Jul 2020 | Dortmund | Marseille | Free / loan | €7.2M |
| 14 Jan 2019 | Boca Juniors | Dortmund | €15.5M | €2.5M |
| 8 Jul 2018 | Boca Juniors II | Boca Juniors | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | CABJ U20 | Boca Juniors II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.