Daan Rots

25 yrs · Right winger · Netherlands
FC Twente Enschede · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 179 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.7M – €5.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €5.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.8M – €7.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.6M – €4.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.7M – €5.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €5.8M
Projected value (24 months)€2.8M – €7.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Daan Rots's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-5.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-7.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (2370 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 96

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage49.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.3M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-5% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2370 (78% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.49
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.37
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
50 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1403
Opponent strength
1299
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.8M – €7.5M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -57% to -7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (ATT)
Relative output kept
73%–122%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
61%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRW33237077%940.490.37129914030.43
2024/25FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRW32218972%370.410.32129114090.50
2023/24FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRW33259585%7100.590.39134814660.48
2022/23FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRW2266622%000.000.17132615050.58
2021/22FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRW27172556%330.310.39135914350.60
2020/21FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRW112227%100.410.40130612510.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede435810—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Twente Enschede9539211498
2024/25Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede217900—
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede2147001622
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede6487201427
2023/24Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede13200—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede4220111380
2022/23Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede19020—
2021/22Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede311501—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marko Livaja
Super League 1 · 2019
26€4.0M€3.5Mflat
Anders Dreyer
Superliga · 2023
25€8.0M€9.0Mflat
Stefanos Athanasiadis
Super League 1 · 2015
27€4.5M€2.0Mfell
Gue-sung Cho
Superliga · 2024
26€4.5M€2.5Mfell
Daniil Lesovoy
Premier Liga · 2021
23€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Koki Ogawa
Eredivisie · 2024
27€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Gustav Isaksen
Superliga · 2023
22€7.5M€20.0Mrose
Fedor Chalov
Premier Liga · 2024
26€11.0M€4.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
17 Feb 2021FC Twente U21FC TwenteUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2020FC Twente U19FC Twente U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018FC Twente U17FC Twente U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017FC Twente YouthFC Twente U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Grol JeugdFC Twente YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Daan Rots · MoneyballAI