
Daan Rots
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daan Rots's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-5.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-7.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (2370 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2370 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1299
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €7.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -57% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RW | 33 | 2370 | 77% | 9 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 1299 | 1403 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RW | 32 | 2189 | 72% | 3 | 7 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 1291 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RW | 33 | 2595 | 85% | 7 | 10 | 0.59 | 0.39 | 1348 | 1466 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RW | 22 | 666 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1326 | 1505 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RW | 27 | 1725 | 56% | 3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 1359 | 1435 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RW | 11 | 222 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 1306 | 1251 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 358 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Twente Enschede | 9 | 539 | 2 | 1 | 1498 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 179 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 6 | 487 | 2 | 0 | 1427 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 220 | 1 | 1 | 1380 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 90 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 3 | 115 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marko Livaja Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Anders Dreyer Superliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Stefanos Athanasiadis Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gue-sung Cho Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Daniil Lesovoy Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Koki Ogawa Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gustav Isaksen Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Fedor Chalov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb 2021 | FC Twente U21 | FC Twente | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Twente U19 | FC Twente U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Twente U17 | FC Twente U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Twente Youth | FC Twente U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Grol Jeugd | FC Twente Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.