Archie Brown
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Archie Brown's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-8.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.6M-16.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-18.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.1M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1535 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.4M – €18.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts; changed club; league level down (-105 Elo); relative output up 74% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -52% to +33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1535 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | LB | 25 | 1535 | 50% | 3 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 1271 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 27 | 2289 | 85% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1377 | 1422 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 21 | 1655 | 61% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1390 | 1436 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 7 | 587 | 0 | 1 | 1495 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 335 | 1 | 2 | 1610 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 6 | 380 | 0 | 2 | 1302 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Tierney Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €12.5M | €32.0M | rose |
| Igor Diveev Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €7.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Dimitrios Giannoulis Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Daniel Muñoz Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Tayyip Talha Sanuç Super Lig · 2023 | 24 | €4.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pape Abou Cissé Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €8.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Yaroslav Rakitskyi Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2025 | KAA Gent | Fenerbahçe | €8.0M | €7.0M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Lausanne-Sport | KAA Gent | €4.0M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Derby U23 | Lausanne-Sport | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Derby U18 | Derby U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Derby Youth | Derby U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.