CJ Egan-Riley
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates CJ Egan-Riley's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-5.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.9M-11.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-13.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 49.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.4M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 626 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1405
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €13.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -18% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 626 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 11 | 626 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1405 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 10 | 760 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1320 | 1237 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1589 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malang Sarr Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Abner Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Djed Spence Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Almamy Touré Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €6.5M | €5.5M | flat |
| Gustavo Gómez Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Caleb Okoli Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Ewerton Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €3.2M | €3.8M | flat |
| Martin Hinteregger Bundesliga · 2016 | 24 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Burnley | Marseille | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | PSV U21 | Burnley | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Burnley | PSV U21 | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Hibernian FC | Burnley | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Burnley | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man City U21 | Burnley | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.