Malang Sarr

27 yrs · Centre-back · France
RC Lens · Ligue 1 · Foot: left · Height: 183 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€20.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€13.1M – €29.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€6.9M – €17.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€8.1M – €21.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€22.1M – €4.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€13.1M – €29.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€6.9M – €17.5M
Projected value (24 months)€8.1M – €21.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€20.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Malang Sarr's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-17.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.1M-29.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.1M-21.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 2

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh82.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €20.2M vs market €20.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2925 (96% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
82 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1569
Opponent strength
1464
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€8.1M – €21.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; team strength up (+85 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +32% (IQR -60% to +49%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26RC LensLigue 1CB33292596%010.030.04146415690.88
2024/25RC LensLigue 1CB21138245%000.000.03144414840.88
2022/23AS MonacoLigue 1CB1371121%000.000.03139614850.82
2021/22Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB854616%000.000.03159817371.17
2020/21FC PortoLiga PortugalCB856518%000.000.03132716800.61
2019/20OGC NiceLigue 1CB19145258%100.060.07141914560.82
2018/19OGC NiceLigue 1CB35299588%110.060.07146314530.82
2017/18OGC NiceLigue 1CB21131939%000.000.03143114890.85
2016/17OGC NiceLigue 1CB27220965%110.080.07142315680.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingRC Lens171001439
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueAS Monaco3291001468
2021/22Fa CupChelsea FC439000—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC2100001557
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto6418001670
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice3270001476
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingOGC Nice3219001644
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice4360011534

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alessio Romagnoli
Serie A · 2023
28€18.0M€7.0Mfell
Ricardo Rodríguez
Serie A · 2018
26€15.0M€5.5Mfell
Jan Vertonghen
Premier League · 2015
28€19.0M€28.0Mrose
Reinildo Mandava
Ligue 1 · 2022
28€22.0M€9.0Mfell
Julian Ryerson
Bundesliga · 2023
26€13.0M€20.0Mrose
Axel Disasi
Ligue 1 · 2022
24€17.0M€40.0Mrose
Simon Kjær
Ligue 1 · 2014
25€6.0M€8.5Mrose
Nathaniel Clyne
Premier League · 2015
24€17.0M€21.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
26 Jul 2024ChelseaLensFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2023MonacoChelseaFree / loan€6.0M
10 Aug 2022ChelseaMonacoFree / loan€8.0M
30 Jun 2021PortoChelseaFree / loan€10.0M
6 Oct 2020ChelseaPortoFree / loan€16.0M
27 Aug 2020NiceChelseaFree / loan€16.0M
1 Jul 2016OGC Nice BNiceUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015OGC Nice U17OGC Nice BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014OGCN YthOGC Nice U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Malang Sarr · MoneyballAI