
Malang Sarr
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Malang Sarr's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-17.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.1M-29.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.1M-21.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.2M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2925 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.1M – €21.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; team strength up (+85 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +32% (IQR -60% to +49%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 33 | 2925 | 96% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1464 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1382 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1444 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 13 | 711 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1396 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 8 | 546 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1598 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 8 | 565 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1327 | 1680 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 19 | 1452 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1419 | 1456 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 35 | 2995 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1463 | 1453 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1319 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1431 | 1489 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2209 | 65% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1423 | 1568 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Lens | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 3 | 291 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 6 | 418 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 3 | 219 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1534 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Jan Vertonghen Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €19.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Reinildo Mandava Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €22.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Julian Ryerson Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €13.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Axel Disasi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €17.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Simon Kjær Ligue 1 · 2014 | 25 | €6.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Nathaniel Clyne Premier League · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €21.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2024 | Chelsea | Lens | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Monaco | Chelsea | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 10 Aug 2022 | Chelsea | Monaco | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Porto | Chelsea | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 6 Oct 2020 | Chelsea | Porto | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 27 Aug 2020 | Nice | Chelsea | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | OGC Nice B | Nice | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | OGC Nice U17 | OGC Nice B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | OGCN Yth | OGC Nice U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.