Abner
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abner's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-13.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-12.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-16.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.3M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2157 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1441
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.1M – €16.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -33% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LB | 26 | 2157 | 70% | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 1441 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LB | 19 | 1091 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1436 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 23 | 1397 | 41% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1486 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 13 | 603 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1506 | 1530 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 386 | 1 | 1 | 1510 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 356 | 1 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 399 | 0 | 1 | 1473 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 1698 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frédéric Guilbert Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Lucas Martínez Quarta Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa Serie A · 2015 | 26 | €6.5M | €6.5M | flat |
| Omar Alderete Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Federico Gatti Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €18.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Davide Zappacosta Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €8.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Rafael Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Real Betis | Lyon | €8.0M | €7.0M |
| 15 Jan 2023 | Athletico-PR | Real Betis | €7.0M | €8.0M |
| 19 Jul 2019 | Ponte Preta | Athletico-PR | €2.4M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Mar 2019 | Ponte Preta U20 | Ponte Preta | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.