Egor Teslenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Egor Teslenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.5M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2402 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -42% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2402 | 89% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1319 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2384 | 88% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1298 | 1322 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 565 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1300 | 1271 | 0.49 |
| 2021/22 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 742 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1319 | 1227 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 7 | 445 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 6 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | KamAZ Naberezhnye Chelny | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toni Borevković Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Maksim Osipenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Jesper Daland Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Jan-Arie van der Heijden Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Bruno Uvini Eredivisie · 2016 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Anele Ngcongca Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Miroslav Bogosavac Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.3M | flat |
| Yohan Tavares Liga Portugal · 2016 | 28 | €2.8M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb 2022 | KamAZ | Rubin Kazan | €233k | €500k |
| 14 Jul 2020 | CSKA Moscow II | KamAZ | Free / loan | €100k |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Urozhay U19 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Kuban 2 | Ekaterinodar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Jul 2017 | Kuban U19 | Kuban 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.