Johann Lepenant
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Johann Lepenant's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-10.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-9.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-9.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (2175 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2175 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €9.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -32% to +123%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 27 | 2175 | 71% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1488 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 29 | 2054 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1451 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 6 | 250 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1445 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 31 | 1934 | 57% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1417 | 1549 | 0.82 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoul Bellanova Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Giulio Maggiore Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €7.5M | €5.5M | fell |
| Andrea Poli Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Alexis Blin Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Enzo Le Fée Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Vini Souza Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Domagoj Bradarić Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Andrés Cubas Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Lyon | FC Nantes | €2.5M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | FC Nantes | Lyon | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Lyon | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | SM Caen | Lyon | €4.3M | €5.0M |
| 1 Oct 2020 | SM Caen B | SM Caen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | SM Caen U19 | SM Caen B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SM Caen U17 | SM Caen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Granville U17 | SM Caen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.