Vini Souza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vini Souza's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-7.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-6.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.36x the positional average in the league (1771 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.0M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1771 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €6.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -42% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1771 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 24 | 1771 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1476 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Sheffield United | Premier League | DM | 36 | 2672 | 78% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1613 | 1269 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 34 | 2433 | 71% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1517 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 27 | 2261 | 74% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1344 | 1320 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 232 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saphir Taïder Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Pedro Chirivella Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Iddrisu Baba Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| William Kvist Bundesliga · 2013 | 28 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Karol Linetty Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Lassana Coulibaly Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Jucilei Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jack Cork Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €5.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Sheff Utd | Wolfsburg | €15.0M | €15.0M |
| 9 Aug 2023 | Lommel SK | Sheff Utd | €12.5M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Espanyol | Lommel SK | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 8 Jul 2022 | Lommel SK | Espanyol | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | KV Mechelen | Lommel SK | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lommel SK | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €500k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Flamengo | Lommel SK | €2.5M | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.