Carlos Augusto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Augusto's performance-implied value at EUR 14.5M-56.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.6M-29.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.0M-23.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.0M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1753 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1462
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.0M – €23.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-96 Elo); role change LM -> CB; relative output up 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -63% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1753 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 34 | 1753 | 51% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 1462 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | LM | 29 | 1681 | 49% | 3 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 1471 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | LM | 37 | 1704 | 50% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1430 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Monza | Serie A | LM | 35 | 3086 | 90% | 6 | 5 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 1456 | 1453 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 7 | 386 | 1 | 0 | 1561 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 13 | 660 | 0 | 2 | 1708 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1711 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 7 | 474 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 2 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Meunier Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €30.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Andreas Christensen Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €40.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Giorgio Chiellini Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €28.5M | €16.5M | fell |
| Thilo Kehrer Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Domenico Criscito Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Juan Bernat Ligue 1 · 2020 | 27 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Marius Wolf Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Layvin Kurzawa Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €22.0M | €17.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Monza | Inter | €15.3M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Inter | Monza | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Monza | Inter | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Corinthians | Monza | €4.2M | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Corinthians U17 | Corinthians U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.