Robin Østrøm
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Østrøm's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1772 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -48% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1772 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 21 | 1772 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1272 | 1213 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 21 | 1354 | 68% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1320 | 1264 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | LB | 14 | 982 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1346 | 1238 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | RB | 3 | 194 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1226 | 1266 | 0.47 |
| 2022/23 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 1 | 71 | 4% | 1 | 0 | 1.27 | 0.42 | 1305 | 1240 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 10 | 560 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1300 | 1218 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 5 | 301 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1235 | 1252 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1156 | 1264 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 3 | 287 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 5 | 336 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1444 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1536 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 6 | 216 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 4 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 4 | 181 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Boldklubben af 1893 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheldon Bateau Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Montassar Talbi Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €1.2M | €7.0M | rose |
| Nihad Mujakic Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €1.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Yaya Banana Super League 1 · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Sebastian Hausner Superliga · 2022 | 22 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Mats Knoester Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €2.4M | €1.3M | fell |
| Cédric D'Ulivo Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €800k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2022 | Odense BK | Silkeborg IF | €200k | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Odense BK U19 | Odense BK | Unknown | €400k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | B.93 | Odense BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | B.93 U19 | B.93 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | B.93 Youth | B.93 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.