Guus Offerhaus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guus Offerhaus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €607k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1216
- Opponent strength
- 1305
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €599k – €1.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -14% to +70%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Telstar | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1305 | 1215 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Telstar | 5 | 450 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Gartenmann Superliga · 2021 | 24 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2015 | 26 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Craig Halkett Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Dimitrios Goutas Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €700k | €2.7M | rose |
| Guy-Marcelin Kilama Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Siebe Horemans Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €1.2M | €3.0M | rose |
| Jens Martin Gammelby Superliga · 2018 | 23 | €700k | €325k | fell |
| Semen Vovchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €400k | €600k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Telstar | Utrecht | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Quick Boys | Telstar | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Koninklijke HFC | Quick Boys | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Emmen U21 | Koninklijke HFC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Heerenveen U21 | Emmen U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Heerenveen U19 | Heerenveen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Heerenveen U17 | Heerenveen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hollandia Yth. | Heerenveen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.