Aitor Paredes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aitor Paredes's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-10.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-10.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-9.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.1M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1629 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €9.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -44% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1629 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1629 | 48% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1469 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1814 | 53% | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1494 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 34 | 2706 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1498 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 16 | 854 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1536 | 1487 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 153 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 10 | 813 | 1 | 1 | 1538 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 600 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €4.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Florentin Pogba Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €4.5M | €800k | fell |
| Guillermo Maripán Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €11.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Danilo D'Ambrosio Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €6.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Yuto Nagatomo Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €12.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Sílvio Laliga · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Iago Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Kristijan Jakic Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bilbao Youth | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.