Himad Abdelli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Himad Abdelli's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1081 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1081 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1331
- Opponent strength
- 1460
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 58 pts; role change AM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -29% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1081 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | CM | 13 | 948 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 1460 | 1306 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 8 | 133 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1530 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | AM | 32 | 2849 | 93% | 6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.46 | 1472 | 1291 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | AM | 30 | 2141 | 63% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 1437 | 1221 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Algeria | 4 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stef Peeters Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Habib Maïga Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Juraj Kucka Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Cafú Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Emanuele Valeri Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €2.3M | €3.0M | rose |
| Alfred N'Diaye Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Angers SCO | Marseille | €2.8M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Le Havre AC | Angers SCO | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 21 Jan 2019 | Le Havre U19 | Le Havre AC | Unknown | €400k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.