Justin Njinmah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Justin Njinmah's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-6.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-7.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-6.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (1955 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1955 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1517
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €6.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; team strength down (-104 Elo); role change ST -> RW; relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -42% to +114%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | RW | 33 | 1955 | 64% | 5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 1517 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 26 | 945 | 31% | 3 | 4 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 1504 | 1483 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 24 | 1012 | 33% | 6 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 1532 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 1 | 21 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1593 | 1691 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 4 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Delort Ligue 1 · 2018 | 27 | €4.0M | €10.5M | rose |
| Stiven Mendoza Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Isaac Success Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Matteo Politano Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €7.5M | €30.0M | rose |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Mathieu Cafaro Ligue 1 · 2021 | 24 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Alexander Esswein Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ferhat Kiraz Super Lig · 2014 | 25 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | B. Dortmund II | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €800k |
| 6 Jan 2022 | Werder Bremen | B. Dortmund II | Free / loan | €175k |
| 5 Jan 2022 | W. Bremen II | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Holst. Kiel II | W. Bremen II | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Holst. Kiel U19 | Holst. Kiel II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Eimsbüttel U19 | Holst. Kiel U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Eimsbüttel U17 | Eimsbüttel U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Eimsbüttel Yth. | Eimsbüttel U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Altona 93 Yth. | Eimsbüttel Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.