Eric Martel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eric Martel's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-10.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-13.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (2564 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.1M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2564 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €13.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +54% (IQR -28% to +88%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 31 | 2564 | 84% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1487 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2465 | 81% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1524 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | DM | 29 | 2019 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1534 | 1476 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €11.5M | €16.0M | rose |
| Roberto Pereyra Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €10.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Morten Hjulmand Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Diego Laxalt Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €13.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Giacomo Bonaventura Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Juraj Kucka Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Ellyes Skhiri Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €6.8M | €13.0M | rose |
| Răzvan Marin Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €12.0M | €2.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 1.FC Köln | Mainz | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Leipzig | 1.FC Köln | €1.2M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Austria Vienna | Leipzig | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 15 Jan 2021 | Leipzig | Austria Vienna | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jan 2021 | RB Leipzig U19 | Leipzig | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | RB Leipzig U17 | RB Leipzig U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | RB Leipzig Yth. | RB Leipzig U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Regensburg Yth. | RB Leipzig Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.