Leopold Querfeld
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leopold Querfeld's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-15.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.6M-31.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.8M-35.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €22.5M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 10% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2704 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 10%
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.8M – €35.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; relative output down 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -42% to +26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2704 | 88% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1495 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 1742 | 57% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 1526 | 1394 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 300 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nehuén Pérez Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €10.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Fabiano Parisi Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Fodé Ballo-Touré Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €12.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Reece Oxford Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €12.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Valentino Lazaro Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gastón Álvarez Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Jhon Lucumí Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €12.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Rapid Vienna | Union Berlin | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Rapid Wien II | Rapid Vienna | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | AKA Rapid U18 | Rapid Wien II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AKA Rapid U16 | AKA Rapid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AKA Rapid U15 | AKA Rapid U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rapid Youth | AKA Rapid U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2012 | Mauer Yth. | Rapid Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.