Arkadiusz Pyrka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arkadiusz Pyrka's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-5.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.50x the positional average in the league (2581 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.5M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2581 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €5.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -39% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | RM | 31 | 2581 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 1496 | 1283 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 4 | 306 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danley Jean Jacques Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Antoine Makoumbou Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Salis Abdul Samed Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €3.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Sebastian Vasiliadis Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €3.2M | €1.8M | fell |
| Charles Pickel Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €3.8M | €2.4M | fell |
| Adam Forshaw Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Nampalys Mendy Ligue 1 · 2014 | 22 | €5.5M | €7.5M | rose |
| Stephan Fürstner Bundesliga · 2013 | 26 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Piast Gliwice | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Znicz Pruszkow | Piast Gliwice | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jul 2018 | Znicz U19 | Znicz Pruszkow | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Broń Radom U19 | Znicz U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.