Igor Matanovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Matanovic's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-26.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.6M-37.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.8M-38.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1563 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €24.6M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1563 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.75
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.8M – €38.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -40% to +49%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1563 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | ST | 31 | 1563 | 51% | 11 | 2 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 1474 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 16 | 300 | 10% | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1434 | 1574 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 14 | 722 | 3 | 1 | 1501 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 4 | 261 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Croatia | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 288 | 0 | 1 | 1471 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 85 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Anderson Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Jonathan Burkardt Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Jean-Kévin Augustin Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €20.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Cengiz Ünder Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Patrick Cutrone Serie A · 2018 | 20 | €23.0M | €15.5M | fell |
| Abde Ezzalzouli Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Arthur Cabral Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jamie Leweling Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €9.0M | €40.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | Frankfurt | Freiburg | €6.7M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Karlsruher SC | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Frankfurt | Karlsruher SC | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | St. Pauli | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Frankfurt | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Aug 2021 | St. Pauli | Frankfurt | €1.8M | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | St. Pauli U19 | St. Pauli | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | St. Pauli U17 | St. Pauli U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | St. Pauli Yth. | St. Pauli U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | HTB Jgd. | St. Pauli Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.