Arinaldo Rrapaj
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arinaldo Rrapaj's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1264 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €388k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1264 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1200
- Opponent strength
- 1153
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €354k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -30% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1264 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | AM | 20 | 1264 | 47% | 2 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 1153 | 1200 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | AM | 13 | 1043 | 39% | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 1230 | 1186 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Partizani | 3 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 1341 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muharrem Jashari Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
| Maksym Lunyov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Petar Micin Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €600k | rose |
| Luis Perea Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Panagiotis Tzimas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Daniel Avramovski Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Atakan Çankaya Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €1.4M | €1.3M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2025 | FK Partizani | Kolos Kovalivka | €550k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | KF Skënderbeu | FK Partizani | €50k | €200k |
| 28 Sept 2020 | Flamurtari FC | KF Skënderbeu | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Flamurtari U19 | Flamurtari FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Sept 2016 | Flamurtari U17 | Flamurtari U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Oct 2015 | Flamurtari U15 | Flamurtari U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.