Andrew
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andrew's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-6.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-5.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.4M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1496 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €5.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; team strength up (+68 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -28% to +45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1496 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 17 | 1496 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1325 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1347 | 1235 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1383 | 1276 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 24 | 2130 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1398 | 1341 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 10 | 900 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1404 | 1376 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Gil Vicente FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1407 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandr Maksimenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Harun Tekin Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Jean Butez Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 25 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Selikhov Premier Liga · 2017 | 23 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Marko Ilic Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ertuğrul Taşkıran Super Lig · 2014 | 25 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
| Esteban Alvarado Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Arnaud Bodart Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Gil Vicente | Flamengo | €1.5M | €7.0M |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Botafogo | Gil Vicente | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Botafogo U20 | Botafogo | Unknown | €50k |
| 21 Aug 2020 | Maranhão | Botafogo U20 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 29 Jul 2020 | Botafogo U20 | Maranhão | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Botafogo U17 | Botafogo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.