Rasmus Højlund
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rasmus Højlund's performance-implied value at EUR 40.4M-74.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 46.1M-76.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 27.8M-85.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (2762 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €67.4M vs market €60.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2762 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1618
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €27.8M – €85.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts; changed club; league level down (-108 Elo); relative output up 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -42% to +38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | ST | 33 | 2762 | 81% | 12 | 6 | 0.59 | 0.43 | 1487 | 1618 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | ST | 32 | 2014 | 59% | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 1578 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | ST | 30 | 2171 | 63% | 10 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 1581 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | ST | 32 | 1835 | 54% | 9 | 4 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 1469 | 1556 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | ST | 4 | 165 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1256 | 1409 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 7 | 597 | 3 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 172 | 1 | 1 | 1634 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 96 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 15 | 996 | 6 | 3 | 1575 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 239 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 489 | 5 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 5 | 387 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Sportklub Puntigamer Sturm Graz | 2 | 164 | 1 | 0 | 1543 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 63 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Szoboszlai Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €50.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Dušan Vlahović Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €65.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Moussa Dembélé Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Moussa Diaby Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €38.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Mohammed Kudus Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Yussuf Poulsen Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €35.0M | €21.0M | fell |
| Felipe Anderson Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €25.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Federico Chiesa Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €60.0M | €40.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Man Utd | Napoli | €44.0M | €60.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Napoli | Man Utd | Free / loan | €60.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Man Utd | Napoli | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 5 Aug 2023 | Atalanta | Man Utd | €79.8M | €45.0M |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Sturm Graz | Atalanta | €21.0M | €4.5M |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Copenhagen | Sturm Graz | €1.9M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Copenhagen U19 | Copenhagen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Bröndby Youth | FCK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Hörsholm | Bröndby Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.