Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Taishi Brandon Nozawa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-7.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.7M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1845 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1365
- Opponent strength
- 1373
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €7.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +38% (IQR -43% to +216%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 21 | 1845 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1373 | 1365 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Antwerp FC | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1364 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandr Selikhov Premier Liga · 2017 | 23 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Ivan Konovalov Premier Liga · 2019 | 25 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Zion Suzuki Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €2.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Matheus Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Luiz Júnior Liga Portugal · 2021 | 20 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Radoslaw Majecki Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Maksimenko Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €3.5M | €13.0M | rose |
| Erwin Mulder Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Tokyo | Royal Antwerp | €1.0M | €800k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Iwate Grulla M. | FC Tokyo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Aug 2021 | FC Tokyo | Iwate Grulla M. | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2020 | FC Tokyo U18 | FC Tokyo | Unknown | €25k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.