Zion Suzuki
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zion Suzuki's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-14.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.2M-25.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.9M-27.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.7M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.9M – €27.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 44 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -50% to -1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | GK | 20 | 1800 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1514 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3315 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1512 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 22 | 1980 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1372 | 1324 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Cragno Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €17.5M | €16.0M | flat |
| Ionuț Radu Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €9.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Kevin Trapp Bundesliga · 2015 | 25 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Timo Horn Bundesliga · 2017 | 24 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Francesco Bardi Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Guglielmo Vicario Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €16.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Emil Audero Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2024 | Sint-Truiden | Parma | €8.2M | €2.5M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Urawa Reds | Sint-Truiden | €4.0M | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Sint-Truiden | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 6 Aug 2023 | Urawa Reds | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Urawa Reds U18 | Urawa Reds | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.