Luiz Júnior
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luiz Júnior's performance-implied value at EUR 11.7M-27.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.3M-16.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.5M-18.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.1M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2520 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.5M – €18.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -37% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | GK | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1481 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | GK | 17 | 1457 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1530 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1603 | 1333 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1385 | 1321 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1408 | 1362 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1373 | 1365 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | GK | 23 | 2070 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1340 | 1332 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1578 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau López Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Ralf Fährmann Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Tim Krul Premier League · 2013 | 25 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga Laliga · 2018 | 24 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Wojciech Szczesny Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €12.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Florian Müller Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Rui Silva Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Philipp Köhn Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2024 | Famalicão | Villarreal | €12.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Nov 2020 | Famalicão U23 | Famalicão | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Mirassol-SP | Famalicão U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.