Jesús Vázquez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jesús Vázquez's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-6.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-6.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.3M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 961 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1521
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €6.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 22% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -41% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 961 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 24 | 961 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1521 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 19 | 917 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1573 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 20 | 705 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1496 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 10 | 306 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1569 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LB | 15 | 813 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1505 | 1487 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 480 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 213 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 105 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 168 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Gómez Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Liam Moore Premier League · 2015 | 22 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Alexis Rolín Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €2.6M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jordy Makengo Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Almamy Touré Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €6.5M | €5.5M | flat |
| Kouadio-Yves Dabila Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Óscar Mingueza Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €2.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Francesco Acerbi Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2022 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.