Joris Chotard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joris Chotard's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-11.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-9.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-10.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (2777 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.5M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2777 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1470
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €10.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; changed club; team strength up (+172 Elo); relative output up 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -32% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | DM | 33 | 2777 | 91% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1470 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 26 | 1871 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1471 | 1236 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 31 | 2593 | 85% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1477 | 1434 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 35 | 2465 | 72% | 0 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1440 | 1440 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 36 | 2944 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1427 | 1366 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 29 | 1155 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1446 | 1425 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | DM | 20 | 1251 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1431 | 1463 | 0.82 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Veretout Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €9.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Maxime Lopez Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Adrien Thomasson Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €8.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Giulio Maggiore Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €8.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Adrien Tamèze Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Azor Matusiwa Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Morten Thorsby Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €7.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Pedro Chirivella Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2025 | Montpellier | Stade Brestois | €2.4M | €6.0M |
| 25 Sept 2019 | Montpellier B | Montpellier | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Montpellier U19 | Montpellier B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Montpellier U17 | Montpellier U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Le Pontet Jgd. | Montpellier U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.