Pedro Chirivella
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Chirivella's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.34x the positional average in the league (1419 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1419 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1465
- Opponent strength
- 1244
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €3.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; changed club; team strength up (+109 Elo); league level down (-186 Elo); relative output down 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -58% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1419 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | DM | 18 | 1419 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1244 | 1465 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 30 | 2363 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1455 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 32 | 2601 | 85% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1479 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CM | 26 | 2041 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1453 | 1349 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 31 | 2646 | 77% | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1417 | 1457 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 32 | 2282 | 67% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1449 | 1376 | 0.75 |
| 2017/18 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | CM | 31 | 2605 | 85% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1332 | 1287 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | CM | 17 | 1525 | 50% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 1364 | 1115 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CM | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1463 | 1639 | 1.08 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 7 | 435 | 0 | 0 | 1420 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 355 | 0 | 0 | 1361 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 188 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Nantes | 8 | 471 | 0 | 1 | 1545 |
| 2022/23 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Nantes | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 146 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manolis Siopis Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jaba Kankava Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Scott Brown Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 31 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Rasmus Falk Superliga · 2020 | 28 | €1.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Wout Brama Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andreas Bouchalakis Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Marko Vejinović Eredivisie · 2016 | 26 | €4.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Nantes | Panathinaikos | €2.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Liverpool U23 | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €650k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Extremadura | Liverpool U23 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Liverpool U23 | Extremadura | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Willem II | Liverpool U23 | Free / loan | €750k |
| 26 Jul 2017 | Liverpool U23 | Willem II | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Go Ahead Eagles | Liverpool U23 | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Jan 2017 | Liverpool U23 | Go Ahead Eagles | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Liverpool U18 | Liverpool U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jul 2013 | Valencia U19 | Liverpool U18 | €2.3M | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.