Matvey Lukin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matvey Lukin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-5.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-9.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €5.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1384 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1310
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; relative output down 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -12% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1384 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1384 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1310 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 600 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 1257 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 5 | 351 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1351 | 1403 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 2 | 91 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1283 | 1447 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 9 | 482 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 8 | 675 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 314 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Denswil Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Danila Prokhin Premier Liga · 2022 | 21 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Georgios Vagiannidis Super League 1 · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Tyrell Malacia Eredivisie · 2019 | 20 | €3.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Michal Sadílek Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €3.2M | €4.0M | rose |
| Serdar Saatçı Liga Portugal · 2024 | 21 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Zeno Van Den Bosch Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Renato Tapia Eredivisie · 2018 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | CSKA Moscow II | CSKA Moscow | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | CSKA U17 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Ak.ZSKA U16 | CSKA U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.