
Georgios Vagiannidis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Georgios Vagiannidis's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-10.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.5M-10.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-11.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.6M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1279 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €11.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club; team strength up (+254 Elo); league level up (+113 Elo); relative output up 94% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -60% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1279 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RB | 22 | 1279 | 42% | 0 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 1265 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RB | 21 | 1707 | 73% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1242 | 1402 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RB | 17 | 1152 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1221 | 1453 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RB | 19 | 666 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1226 | 1414 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RW | 1 | 61 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 2.95 | 0.45 | 1171 | 1365 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 5 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 1653 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1454 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 5 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 254 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 262 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1558 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Almeida Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Joshua Brenet Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Alexander Bah Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Zaidu Sanusi Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mykola Matvienko Premier Liga · 2019 | 23 | €3.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| João Mário Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Semih Kaya Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €9.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Owen Wijndal Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | Panathinaikos | Sporting | €13.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Panathinaikos B | Panathinaikos | Unknown | €250k |
| 3 Sept 2021 | Inter | Panathinaikos B | €2.0M | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Sint-Truiden | Inter | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Inter | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Panathinaikos | Inter | Free / loan | €400k |
| 14 Nov 2017 | PAO U20 | Panathinaikos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.