Georgios Vagiannidis

25 yrs · Right-back (also RW) · Greece
Sporting CP · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.5M – €10.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.2M – €10.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.4M – €11.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€7.8M – €5.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.5M – €10.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.2M – €10.4M
Projected value (24 months)€3.4M – €11.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Georgios Vagiannidis's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-10.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.5M-10.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-11.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 27

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average70.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.8 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €7.6M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationLow-21% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1279 (42% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.28
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
71 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1656
Opponent strength
1265
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.4M – €11.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club; team strength up (+254 Elo); league level up (+113 Elo); relative output up 94% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -60% to +23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1279 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Sporting CPLiga PortugalRB22127942%040.280.10126516560.58
2024/25Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB21170773%100.050.05124214020.35
2023/24Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB17115249%010.080.08122114530.42
2022/23Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RB1966628%000.000.06122614140.37
2019/20Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1RW1613%112.950.45117113650.46

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSporting CP5172011653
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos158001454
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2142001440
2024/25Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos19000—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos252001533
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos4390001559
2023/24Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos5350001512
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos625410—
2022/23Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos326200—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2122001558
2019/20Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos12700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
André Almeida
Liga Portugal · 2017
27€5.0M€8.0Mrose
Joshua Brenet
Eredivisie · 2017
23€4.0M€4.5Mflat
Alexander Bah
Liga Portugal · 2024
27€13.0M€7.0Mfell
Zaidu Sanusi
Liga Portugal · 2022
25€10.0M€3.0Mfell
Mykola Matvienko
Premier Liga · 2019
23€3.0M€11.0Mrose
João Mário
Liga Portugal · 2023
23€16.0M€10.0Mfell
Semih Kaya
Super Lig · 2015
24€9.5M€3.0Mfell
Owen Wijndal
Eredivisie · 2023
24€8.0M€3.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Aug 2025PanathinaikosSporting€13.0M€8.0M
1 Jul 2022Panathinaikos BPanathinaikosUnknown€250k
3 Sept 2021InterPanathinaikos B€2.0M€200k
30 Jun 2021Sint-TruidenInterFree / loan€200k
1 Oct 2020InterSint-TruidenFree / loan€400k
1 Sept 2020PanathinaikosInterFree / loan€400k
14 Nov 2017PAO U20PanathinaikosUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.