Jon Ander Olasagasti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jon Ander Olasagasti's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-6.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.69x the positional average in the league (1730 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1730 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; changed club; relative output up 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -41% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1730 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | CM | 33 | 1730 | 51% | 1 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 1498 | 1420 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 22 | 852 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 1454 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 14 | 351 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 1473 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 3 | 62 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1573 | 1604 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 3 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 337 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 1437 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 182 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sánchez Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Philipp Bargfrede Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Milos Jojic Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €475k | fell |
| Luca Rizzo Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gonzalo Villar Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Luca de la Torre Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Philipp Förster Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Felix Kroos Bundesliga · 2015 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2025 | Real Sociedad | Levante | €500k | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real Sociedad C | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Antiguoko U19 | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.