Jofre Carreras
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jofre Carreras's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-6.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (921 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.5M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 921 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -65% to +152%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 921 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 26 | 921 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 1481 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 37 | 2178 | 64% | 3 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.47 | 1529 | 1411 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Seferovic Bundesliga · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Tomas Pekhart Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Jhon Córdoba Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €4.0M | €9.5M | rose |
| Nana Ampomah Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €350k | fell |
| Valentin Stocker Bundesliga · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Amin Sarr Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Gaëtan Laborde Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Bouna Sarr Ligue 1 · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | CD Mirandés | Espanyol | Free / loan | €200k |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Espanyol | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Espanyol U18 | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.