Gonzalo Crettaz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gonzalo Crettaz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2790 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1298
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -57% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1298 | 1362 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Nordfeldt Eredivisie · 2015 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Uğurcan Çakır Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Sergio Padt Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Loris Karius Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Nick Olij Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ilya Lantratov Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Eloy Room Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super League 1 · 2018 | 26 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Castellón | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €800k |
| 7 Jul 2023 | UD Logroñés | Castellón | Free / loan | €250k |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Atl. Malagueño | UD Logroñés | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | CD Badajoz | Atl. Malagueño | Free / loan | €300k |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Atl. Malagueño | CD Badajoz | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Málaga U19 | Atl. Malagueño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | San Félix U19 | Málaga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Levante UD Yout | San Félix U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Valencia CF You | Levante UD Yout | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.