Vladyslav Vanat

24 yrs · Striker · Ukraine
Girona FC · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 182 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€15.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€11.3M – €20.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.2M – €20.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€6.2M – €19.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€15.4M – €9.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€11.3M – €20.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.2M – €20.8M
Projected value (24 months)€6.2M – €19.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Vladyslav Vanat's performance-implied value at EUR 5.2M-20.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.3M-20.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.2M-19.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2068 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 11

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average71.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €15.0M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-32% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2068 (61% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.52
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.55
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
72 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1408
Opponent strength
1486
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€6.2M – €19.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; changed club; league level up (+284 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -29% to +48%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Girona FCLaligaST27196057%910.460.55148614130.95
2025/26Dynamo KyivPremier LigaST21084%111.670.37111113240.25
2024/25Dynamo KyivPremier LigaST28215580%1740.880.61119514060.28
2023/24Dynamo KyivPremier LigaST27219581%14100.980.67124414580.34
2022/23Dynamo KyivPremier LigaST25165161%1230.820.59128514330.38
2021/22Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaST17108967%310.330.53128311560.45
2020/21Dynamo KyivPremier LigaST190%000.000.38133815630.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv4303201386
2025/26Copa Del ReyGirona FC210111—
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv173011514
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv8542111526
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv6509221532
2024/25Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv320112—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv3286001467
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv5214101512
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv6184001460
2021/22Ukrainian CupChornomorets Odesa19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Musa Barrow
Serie A · 2022
24€18.0M€8.0Mfell
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Laliga · 2023
23€11.0M€30.0Mrose
Giovanni Simeone
Serie A · 2021
26€11.0M€15.0Mrose
Beto
Serie A · 2023
25€25.0M€22.0Mflat
Mateo Retegui
Serie A · 2024
25€16.0M€30.0Mrose
Diego Rolán
Ligue 1 · 2016
23€8.0M€3.5Mfell
Armand Laurienté
Serie A · 2023
25€18.0M€15.0Mflat
André Ayew
Ligue 1 · 2014
25€12.0M€15.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2025Dynamo KyivGirona€15.0M€15.0M
30 Jan 2022ChornomoretsDynamo KyivFree / loan€300k
23 Jul 2021Dynamo KyivChornomoretsFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2021Dynamo Kyiv IIDynamo KyivUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2019Dynamo Kyiv U19Dynamo Kyiv IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2019Dynamo Kyiv U17Dynamo Kyiv U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.