Nicolò Bertola
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolò Bertola's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.4M-11.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-13.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1761 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €13.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -33% to +99%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1761 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 28 | 1761 | 51% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1488 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2021/22 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | CB | 2 | 33 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1508 | 1319 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Schelotto Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Maxim Leitsch Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gastón Álvarez Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Ghislain Konan Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Jannik Vestergaard Bundesliga · 2015 | 23 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Fabian Schär Bundesliga · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Sergi Palencia Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €6.0M | €2.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Spezia Calcio | Udinese | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Montevarchi | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Spezia Calcio | Montevarchi | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Spezia U19 | Spezia Calcio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Spezia U17 | Spezia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Spezia Youth | Spezia U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.