Giovanni Fabbian

23 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM) · Italy
Bologna Football Club 1909 · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€10.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€6.2M – €13.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.6M – €13.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.6M – €19.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€10.1M – €7.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€6.2M – €13.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.6M – €13.1M
Projected value (24 months)€4.6M – €19.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Giovanni Fabbian's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-13.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-13.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-19.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1168 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 56

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average61.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €9.2M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-3% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €14.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1168 (34% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.33
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
61 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1516
Opponent strength
1492
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.6M – €19.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -38% to +2%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1168 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AAM1470821%200.250.33149215230.93
2025/26ACF FiorentinaSerie ACM1546013%000.000.14149215060.93
2024/25Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AAM30101030%310.360.33146215590.99
2023/24Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AAM27105331%520.600.43145715790.98

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueBologna Football Club 19095148001475
2025/26Italy CupACF Fiorentina19001—
2025/26Italy CupBologna Football Club 190918000—
2025/26Supercoppa ItalianaBologna Football Club 1909115001761
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBologna Football Club 19097493001608
2024/25Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909422210—
2023/24Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909221000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marcelo Brozović
Serie A · 2015
23€8.0M€20.0Mrose
Azzedine Ounahi
Ligue 1 · 2024
24€12.0M€10.0Mflat
David Jurásek
Bundesliga · 2024
24€8.0M€5.0Mfell
Matheus Henrique
Serie A · 2022
25€11.0M€8.5Mfell
Carles Pérez
Serie A · 2021
23€8.0M€5.0Mfell
Ogenyi Onazi
Serie A · 2016
24€4.5M€3.5Mfell
Ansgar Knauff
Bundesliga · 2023
21€8.0M€15.0Mrose
Rodri Sánchez
Laliga · 2023
23€8.0M€2.7Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026BolognaFiorentina€13.0M€10.0M
30 Jun 2026FiorentinaBolognaFree / loan€10.0M
21 Jan 2026BolognaFiorentinaFree / loan€10.0M
20 Aug 2023InterBologna€5.4M€6.0M
30 Jun 2023RegginaInterFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jul 2022InterRegginaFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2022Inter U19InterUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2021Inter U18Inter U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Sept 2020Inter U17Inter U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Inter YouthInter U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Padova YouthInter Youth€190kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.