
Giovanni Fabbian
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giovanni Fabbian's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-13.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-13.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-19.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1168 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1168 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1516
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €19.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -38% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1168 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 14 | 708 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 1492 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 15 | 460 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1492 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 30 | 1010 | 30% | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 1462 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 27 | 1053 | 31% | 5 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 1457 | 1579 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 5 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 1475 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 7 | 493 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 4 | 222 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelo Brozović Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €8.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Azzedine Ounahi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| David Jurásek Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Carles Pérez Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ogenyi Onazi Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ansgar Knauff Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Rodri Sánchez Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €2.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Bologna | Fiorentina | €13.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Fiorentina | Bologna | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Bologna | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 20 Aug 2023 | Inter | Bologna | €5.4M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Reggina | Inter | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Inter | Reggina | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Inter U19 | Inter | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Inter U18 | Inter U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Inter U17 | Inter U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Inter Youth | Inter U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Padova Youth | Inter Youth | €190k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.