David Jurásek
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Jurásek's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-4.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 29th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 637 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 21)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1350
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €4.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-65 Elo); league level down (-219 Elo); relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -17% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 637 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LB | 10 | 637 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1271 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LB | 14 | 615 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1487 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LM | 13 | 490 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1582 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 6 | 258 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1308 | 1603 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 1295 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 355 | 0 | 2 | 1526 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2023/24 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pipa Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
| Alexis Duarte Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Tomasz Kędziora Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Jonas Svensson Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €2.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Rick van Drongelen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.4M | flat |
| Simon Falette Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €2.4M | €275k | fell |
| Robson Bambu Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Panagiotis Retsos Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | Benfica | Slavia Praha | €3.0M | €4.5M |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Besiktas | Benfica | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Benfica | Besiktas | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Hoffenheim | Benfica | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 22 Jan 2024 | Benfica | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Slavia Praha | Benfica | €14.0M | €5.0M |
| 10 Feb 2022 | Mlada Boleslav | Slavia Praha | €1.0M | €400k |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Prostejov | Mlada Boleslav | €60k | €200k |
| 21 Aug 2020 | Zbrojovka Brno | Prostejov | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jun 2020 | Zbroj. Brno B | Zbrojovka Brno | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Zbroj. Brno U19 | Zbroj. Brno B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Zbroj. Brno U17 | Zbroj. Brno U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Feb 2016 | D. Nemci Yth. | Zbroj. Brno U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jul 2015 | Slovacko Yth. | D. Nemci Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Apr 2009 | D. Nemci Yth. | Slovacko Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.