Bryan Castillo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bryan Castillo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1398 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €174k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1398 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1068
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €257k – €526k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -37% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1398 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | ST | 23 | 1398 | 52% | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.40 | 1173 | 1068 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Anderson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Konstantinos Doumtsios Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Oleksiy Sydorov Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Yevgen Pidlepenets Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €300k | €600k | rose |
| Imed Louati Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Dylan Vente Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €2.5M | rose |
| Vladyslav Sharay Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €300k | €500k | rose |
| Rostyslav Taranukha Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2025 | Táchira | FC Oleksandriya | €300k | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Dep. Lara U20 | Táchira | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Dep. Lara U20 | Deportivo Lara | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.