Miguel Rodríguez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Miguel Rodríguez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-6.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (1350 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1350 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1289
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €6.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -42% to +37%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1350 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | RW | 24 | 1350 | 44% | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1289 | 1352 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | RW | 22 | 1247 | 41% | 7 | 3 | 0.72 | 0.53 | 1324 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RW | 15 | 291 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1507 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LW | 7 | 250 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 1475 | 1441 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RW | 4 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1506 | 1535 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Utrecht | 8 | 664 | 2 | 0 | 1501 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 5 | 192 | 0 | 0 | 1333 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 3 | 261 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 356 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Muleka Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Halil Dervişoğlu Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Andy Nájar Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Mateo García Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Mateus Vital Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Paul Mukairu Super Lig · 2022 | 22 | €2.5M | €700k | fell |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.4M | €7.0M | rose |
| Güven Yalçın Super Lig · 2020 | 21 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Celta de Vigo | Utrecht | €1.3M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Utrecht | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Celta de Vigo | Utrecht | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Celta Vigo B | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.