Pedri

23 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM) · Spain
FC Barcelona · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 174 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€150M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€107M – €197M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€45.5M – €111M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€71.7M – €132M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€152M – €4.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€107M – €197M
Model value (performance-implied)€45.5M – €111M
Projected value (24 months)€71.7M – €132M
Dashed line: current market value (€150M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Pedri's performance-implied value at EUR 45.5M-111.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 106.8M-197.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 71.7M-132.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2110 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 7

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite99th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €149M vs market €150M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €150M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2110 (62% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.47
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.23
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
99 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1787
Opponent strength
1489
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€71.7M – €132M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -28% to +2%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC BarcelonaLaligaCM29211062%290.470.23148917870.95
2024/25FC BarcelonaLaligaCM37289585%450.280.18150417920.95
2023/24FC BarcelonaLaligaCM24148243%420.360.23147317231.00
2022/23FC BarcelonaLaligaCM26198258%610.320.20150716960.98
2021/22FC BarcelonaLaligaCM1288826%310.410.25155316861.05
2020/21FC BarcelonaLaligaAM37242871%330.220.20154817431.10

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona9695021634
2025/26World CupSpain322000—
2025/26SupercopaFC Barcelona2162011647
2025/26Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona312700—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona141118021660
2024/25Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona645421—
2024/25SupercopaFC Barcelona2180001748
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona6327031664
2023/24Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona212800—
2023/24SupercopaFC Barcelona290001694
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona5404001725
2022/23SupercopaFC Barcelona2210101706
2022/23Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona17800—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Barcelona141001685
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFC Barcelona6480101510
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona2158001812
2021/22Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona110810—
2021/22SupercopaFC Barcelona174001829
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona7495111643
2020/21Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona642802—
2020/21SupercopaFC Barcelona2179001571

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Paul Pogba
Serie A · 2015
22€55.0M€75.0Mrose
Jude Bellingham
Laliga · 2024
21€180M€130Mfell
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Laliga · 2023
23€85.0M€75.0Mflat
Mason Mount
Premier League · 2022
23€75.0M€35.0Mfell
Achraf Hakimi
Serie A · 2021
23€60.0M€65.0Mflat
Jamal Musiala
Bundesliga · 2024
21€120M€100Mflat
Nicolò Barella
Serie A · 2023
26€75.0M€75.0Mflat
Jeremie Frimpong
Bundesliga · 2024
24€50.0M€35.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Jul 2020UD Las PalmasBarcelonaFree / loan€7.2M
3 Sept 2019BarcelonaUD Las PalmasFree / loanData unavailable
2 Sept 2019UD Las PalmasBarcelona€23.0MData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Las Palmas U19UD Las PalmasUnknownData unavailable
20 May 2018J.Laguna Yth.Las Palmas U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.