Oliver Provstgaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oliver Provstgaard's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.5M-25.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.0M-25.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.4M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1527 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.0M – €25.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+428 Elo); league level up (+220 Elo); relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -19% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1527 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 26 | 1527 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1485 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 16 | 1440 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1317 | 1083 | 0.38 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 2 | 33 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1573 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1307 | 1174 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 43 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 2 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duje Caleta-Car Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Malick Thiaw Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €8.5M | flat |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Marash Kumbulla Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Flavius Daniliuc Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Mamadou Sakho Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Federico Gatti Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €12.0M | €24.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Vejle BK | Lazio | €4.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Vejle BK U19 | Vejle BK | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Vejle BK Youth | Vejle BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.