Malick Thiaw
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Malick Thiaw's performance-implied value at EUR 31.0M-42.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 32.0M-68.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.4M-51.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €48.2M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2964 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1606
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.4M – €51.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; changed club; league level up (+111 Elo); relative output up 331% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +17% (IQR -8% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 35 | 2964 | 87% | 4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1606 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 22 | 1804 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1482 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 21 | 1620 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1469 | 1625 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 20 | 1363 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1425 | 1622 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1539 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2020/21 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 19 | 1449 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1532 | 1303 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 4 | 74 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1512 | 1415 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 11 | 927 | 1 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 5 | 337 | 1 | 1 | 1651 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 5 | 368 | 0 | 0 | 1694 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 4 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 4 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €38.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| José Gayà Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Mario Hermoso Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Ben Chilwell Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Pervis Estupiñán Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €32.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €35.0M | €42.0M | rose |
| Pedro Porro Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | AC Milan | Newcastle | €35.0M | €18.0M |
| 29 Aug 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | AC Milan | €12.8M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Schalke 04 U19 | FC Schalke 04 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Schalke 04 U17 | Schalke 04 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Schalke 04 Yth. | Schalke 04 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | M'gladbach Yth. | Schalke 04 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Leverkusen Yth. | M'gladbach Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Düsseldorf Yth. | Leverkusen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | TV Kalkum Jgd. | Düsseldorf Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.