
Federico Gatti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Federico Gatti's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-16.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.3M-15.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-12.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.8M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1090 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €12.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; relative output up 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -67% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1090 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 21 | 1090 | 32% | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1490 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2199 | 64% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1491 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2640 | 77% | 4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 1481 | 1621 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 18 | 1446 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1438 | 1614 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 446 | 2 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 801 | 0 | 1 | 1644 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Juventus FC | 5 | 346 | 2 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1756 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thilo Kehrer Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mateo Musacchio Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €12.5M | €9.0M | fell |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Faouzi Ghoulam Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €25.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €20.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Cristian Ansaldi Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Aritz Elustondo Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Christian Fuchs Bundesliga · 2014 | 28 | €4.5M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | Frosinone | Juventus | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Juventus | Frosinone | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Frosinone | Juventus | €9.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Pro Patria | Frosinone | €150k | €175k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Verbania | Pro Patria | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Pavarolo | Verbania | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Alessandria U19 | Pavarolo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Pavarolo | Alessandria U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jan 2017 | Alessandria U19 | Pavarolo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Saluzzo | Alessandria U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Alessandria U19 | Saluzzo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Pavarolo | Alessandria U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Alessandria Youth | Pavarolo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Torino FC Youth | Alessandria Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Chieri G. | Torino FC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.