Federico Gatti

28 yrs · Centre-back · Italy
Juventus FC · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€14.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€8.3M – €15.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.3M – €16.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.0M – €12.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€10.5M – €8.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€8.3M – €15.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.3M – €16.4M
Projected value (24 months)€5.0M – €12.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€14.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Federico Gatti's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-16.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.3M-15.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-12.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 4

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh82.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €11.8M vs market €14.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1090 (32% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1614
Opponent strength
1490
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.0M – €12.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; relative output up 57% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -67% to -18%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1090 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Juventus FCSerie ACB21109032%200.170.10149016140.93
2024/25Juventus FCSerie ACB30219964%110.080.06149116290.99
2023/24Juventus FCSerie ACB32264077%400.140.09148116210.98
2022/23Juventus FCSerie ACB18144642%000.000.02143816140.94

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC5446201617
2025/26Italy CupJuventus FC212000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC9801011644
2024/25Italy CupJuventus FC212200—
2024/25Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC190001641
2023/24Italy CupJuventus FC436000—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueJuventus FC5346201624
2022/23Italy CupJuventus FC218000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC2180001756

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Thilo Kehrer
Ligue 1 · 2024
28€10.0M€12.0Mrose
Mateo Musacchio
Serie A · 2018
28€12.5M€9.0Mfell
Juan Foyth
Laliga · 2024
26€15.0M€8.0Mfell
Faouzi Ghoulam
Serie A · 2018
27€25.0M€9.5Mfell
Davide Calabria
Serie A · 2023
27€20.0M€4.5Mfell
Cristian Ansaldi
Premier Liga · 2014
28€10.0M€6.0Mfell
Aritz Elustondo
Laliga · 2023
29€14.0M€3.0Mfell
Christian Fuchs
Bundesliga · 2014
28€4.5M€6.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2022FrosinoneJuventusFree / loan€5.0M
31 Jan 2022JuventusFrosinoneFree / loan€1.5M
31 Jan 2022FrosinoneJuventus€9.0M€1.5M
1 Jul 2021Pro PatriaFrosinone€150k€175k
1 Sept 2020VerbaniaPro PatriaFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2018PavaroloVerbaniaFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Alessandria U19PavaroloFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2017PavaroloAlessandria U19Free / loanData unavailable
19 Jan 2017Alessandria U19PavaroloFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2017SaluzzoAlessandria U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Alessandria U19SaluzzoFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2016PavaroloAlessandria U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Alessandria YouthPavaroloFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Torino FC YouthAlessandria YouthUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Chieri G.Torino FC YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.