Eren Dinkçi

24 yrs · Right winger (also SS, ST) · Türkiye
SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.7M – €8.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.5M – €10.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.5M – €8.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.6M – €7.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.7M – €8.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.5M – €10.0M
Projected value (24 months)€2.5M – €8.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Eren Dinkçi's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-10.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-8.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (1381 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 45

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage54.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.0M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationLow-20% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1381 (45% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.39
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.62
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
55 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1363
Opponent strength
1501
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.5M – €8.2M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-141 Elo); role change SS -> RW; relative output up 100% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -18% to +8%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1381 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846BundesligaRW14113637%330.480.62150113230.94
2025/26SC FreiburgBundesligaRW82458%000.000.27146615510.94
2024/25SC FreiburgBundesligaSS23119439%040.300.35147115050.94
2023/241. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846BundesligaRW33267687%1050.500.61151614241.01
2022/23SV Werder BremenBundesligaST172157%000.000.56156313931.04
2020/21SV Werder BremenBundesligaRW81023%100.880.52159213841.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb PokalSC Freiburg17810—
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg354001447
2024/25Dfb PokalSC Freiburg19000—
2023/24Dfb Pokal1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 184616111—
2022/23Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen16300—
2020/21Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen21600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Romain Alessandrini
Ligue 1 · 2013
24€7.5M€5.0Mfell
Lameck Banda
Serie A · 2024
23€6.0M€3.5Mfell
Largie Ramazani
Laliga · 2023
22€6.0M€7.5Mrose
Eduardo Vargas
Premier League · 2015
26€6.0M€6.0Mflat
Adam Ounas
Serie A · 2021
25€8.0M€7.0Mflat
Antonio Sanabria
Serie A · 2020
24€6.5M€7.5Mflat
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Serie A · 2023
23€8.0M€8.5Mflat
Robin Hack
Bundesliga · 2024
26€8.0M€7.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026HeidenheimFreiburgFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jan 2026FreiburgHeidenheimFree / loan€6.0M
1 Jul 2024Werder BremenFreiburg€5.0M€12.0M
30 Jun 2024HeidenheimWerder BremenFree / loan€12.0M
1 Jul 2023Werder BremenHeidenheimFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jan 2021W. Bremen IIWerder BremenUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2020W. Bremen U19W. Bremen IIUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2019SC Borgfeld U19W. Bremen U19Free / loanData unavailable
2 Jan 2019W. Bremen U19SC Borgfeld U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2019SC Borgfeld U19W. Bremen U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018SC Borgfeld U17SC Borgfeld U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016ATSV YouthSC Borgfeld U17Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.