
Eren Dinkçi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Eren Dinkçi's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-10.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-8.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (1381 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.0M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1381 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1363
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €8.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-141 Elo); role change SS -> RW; relative output up 100% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -18% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1381 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | RW | 14 | 1136 | 37% | 3 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.62 | 1501 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 8 | 245 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1466 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | SS | 23 | 1194 | 39% | 0 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 1471 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | RW | 33 | 2676 | 87% | 10 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 1516 | 1424 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 17 | 215 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1563 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | RW | 8 | 102 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.52 | 1592 | 1384 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 78 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 3 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 61 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Alessandrini Ligue 1 · 2013 | 24 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Lameck Banda Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Largie Ramazani Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Eduardo Vargas Premier League · 2015 | 26 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Adam Ounas Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Antonio Sanabria Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €6.5M | €7.5M | flat |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Robin Hack Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Heidenheim | Freiburg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Freiburg | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Werder Bremen | Freiburg | €5.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Heidenheim | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Werder Bremen | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | W. Bremen II | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | W. Bremen U19 | W. Bremen II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | SC Borgfeld U19 | W. Bremen U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jan 2019 | W. Bremen U19 | SC Borgfeld U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | SC Borgfeld U19 | W. Bremen U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SC Borgfeld U17 | SC Borgfeld U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | ATSV Youth | SC Borgfeld U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.