Rafa Obrador
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafa Obrador's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-10.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-12.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.54x the positional average in the league (1191 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €6.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 34% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1191 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1432
- Opponent strength
- 1479
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 34%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €12.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +92% (IQR +66% to +159%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1191 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | LM | 16 | 1123 | 33% | 1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 1479 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 1 | 68 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1164 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | LB | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1468 | 1415 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Sensi Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €3.5M | €24.0M | rose |
| Daniele Baselli Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €3.8M | €7.0M | rose |
| Sofiane Boufal Ligue 1 · 2015 | 22 | €4.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Alain Traoré Ligue 1 · 2013 | 24 | €6.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Andrea Colpani Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €9.5M | rose |
| Luca Mazzitelli Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Jacopo Fazzini Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Godfred Donsah Serie A · 2016 | 20 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Torino | Benfica | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Benfica | Torino | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 11 Jul 2025 | RM Castilla | Benfica | €5.0M | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Dep. La Coruña | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €500k |
| 21 Aug 2024 | RM Castilla | Dep. La Coruña | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Oct 2020 | RCD Mallorca Yo | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | CE Campos | RCD Mallorca Yo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.